War with Russia

Bear knew that, as an ex-Special Operations Forces commander, MacWhite was naturally reticent in discussing how SOF would approach such a challenge. As he’d once said to Bear, it was not a leak to the enemy he feared, but the inevitable political memoirs that would be bound to follow, which, in describing one solution to a problem, would limit the US from using the same solution in the future.

“Next, we’ll need to wind up NATO to take this on. Although the bulk of the capability will be American, we need to multi-nationalize it in order to get the political buy-in. Let’s face it, ma’am, if the Russians do go nuclear, we assess that it is most likely that they will initially use tactical nuclear weapons to destroy our attacking forces and defend themselves. So, while it will probably be Europe which will take the initial hit, we can take no comfort from that. The Russians will almost certainly escalate to the use of ICBMs, intercontinental ballistic missiles, to which we will be forced to respond, and that means a full nuclear exchange and the mass destruction of American cities…” He needed say no more. The consequences of an exchange of ICBMs was too awful to contemplate.

Dillon nodded, but did not react. Instead, she sat back in her chair at the head of the table and took time out to think and study her notes.

Nobody said a word.

Then she looked MacWhite in the eye. “Abe, we can do this and we must do this. Europe’s defense and security is America’s defense and security. We have taken too much risk and made too many assumptions about the world being a safer place just because it is a smaller place… and we’ve all been caught out. Now we’ve just got to do what needs to be done and let me be crystal clear,” and her voice hardened. “If the Russians go nuclear, even with a tactical nuclear weapon, I’ll have no hesitation in retaliating with ICBMs. So make sure that message is communicated loud and clear on every diplomatic channel. This is one issue we, and the world, cannot afford to have the Russians make any miscalculations about.”

She paused to let the implication of this message sink in then, voice softening slightly, she continued, “Our allies in the Baltic states, freedom-loving, democratic countries, must be freed from Russian occupation and we’ll do it. But, as you say, Abe, we’ll do it cleverly. Now, Pete,” she caught Chiarini’s eye. “Set up a cabinet meeting today so that we can take this forward and then let’s get working those phones. I want to start by reassuring London that America is up for the fight.”

1500 hours, Tuesday, June 6, 2017

NATO Headquarters, Brussels, Belgium

THE NORMAL BUSTLE and chatter of diplomats, military staff officers and note takers milling about before an NAC, North Atlantic Council, meeting was absent as McKinlay took his seat next to SACEUR in the conference room at NATO’s Brussels headquarters. A deep sense of despondency hung over the room as Radek Kostilek, the Secretary General of NATO, walked swiftly into the chamber and sat down at the large round table at which the twenty-eight ambassadors of the member states were placed in alphabetical order, behind their name plates and individual national flags. NATO’s failure to deter the Russian invasion of the Baltic states, the heavy casualties suffered by the US Air Force detachment at Lielvārde air base, the sinking of the two mine countermeasures vessels in Riga and, most catastrophic of all, the torpedoing of HMS Queen Elizabeth, had rocked the Western Alliance to its very foundations.

This had been a massive failure by the Alliance; a disaster unprecedented in the history of NATO and the military, political, social and economic consequences were at last sinking in, even in the countries most hostile to overt military action. The frontiers, as well as the balance of power in Europe, were about to change yet again and this time, unlike the end of the Cold War, the democratic West was going to be the clear loser.

Kostilek had confided to Howard and McKinlay before the meeting that he feared the Alliance was on the brink of collapse as a result. Whether NATO was to survive depended on how it reacted to these blows. He had to set the right tone from the start of the meeting, otherwise the naysayers would take control.

“Ladies and gentlemen!” Kostilek’s voice, his Polish accent accentuated by emotion, was commanding. “Please stand. We will first hold a minute of silence in memory of the many NATO soldiers and sailors who have only recently given their lives in defense of freedom.”

McKinlay pulled himself to his feet, as did everyone else around the table. As they stood in silence, the flags of member states that had suffered casualties were projected onto screens around the conference table in alphabetical order: Estonia, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, United Kingdom, United States of America.