War with Russia

McCann nodded. “Satellite images indicate they’re maintaining strong defenses along the Polish-Kaliningrad border and, as expected, the Iskander nuclear batteries are well defended by both ground and air defense. So no change there. However, the good news is that these formations are very localized. They’ve had to thin right out on the Lithuanian border in order to reinforce their troops in the Baltic states and they’ve stripped out their garrisons and equipment inside the country.”

“Does that present us with an opportunity? I’m thinking of that idea I heard about a few weeks ago, of snatching Kaliningrad and forcing the Russians to relinquish the Baltics to get it back.”

McCann looked back at his President. His blue eyes, usually alight with the sparkle of humor, were somber. “Ma’am, we’ve looked at the proposition in detail in line with the direction the National Security Advisor passed on.” He nodded at Bear’s boss, Abe McWhite. “The reality is that, although the Russians have thinned out in Kaliningrad, they’ve still got a significant force in place. If we were to attack conventionally, it would almost certainly result in a long and bloody battle with the Russians defending to the last man. We’ve concluded that the best way to succeed is to play the Russians at their own game.”

“OK—and how do you intend to do that?” questioned Dillon.

McCann stepped forward and took the laser pointer from the briefer. Here was a man who understood that it was the commander’s responsibility to have the big idea and for the staff to implement it. Not for him a series of proposals created and driven by his staff, with him in the role of team manager. Unsurprisingly, thought Bear, his team respected and liked him for his no-nonsense, hands-on approach.

“I’ve talked through the detail with Admiral Howard, the SACEUR and his Brit number two, and we’re agreed on the way ahead. Effectively, we’re going to mount a massive deception by making the Russians think we’re planning to invade the Baltic states in a huge envelopment operation. Because, after all, we’ve now got the manpower and equipment to do it and that’s what we reckon the Russians would do in our place.”

The President nodded for him to continue, evidently fascinated to discover what the military had come up with.

“Ma’am, we intend to concentrate our conventional ground divisions in this area close to the Polish–Lithuanian border.” He pointed on the map to the town of Suwalki, in northeastern Poland.

“Meanwhile, 6th Fleet will screen off the Russian’s Baltic fleet in Baltiysk, their naval base in Kaliningrad. That will allow 2nd Marine Expeditionary Force to sail east toward the coast of Estonia. The aim is to make the Russians think we want to mount an amphibious landing here on the coast of the Gulf of Riga, south of Pärnu…” McCann pointed to the Estonian coast. “It’s the obvious place to land because of the long sandy beaches.”

Dillon nodded thoughtfully. “This looks pretty conventional to me. So, where’s the clever stuff?”

Bear smiled inwardly. Dillon was already getting the measure of her senior military advisers.

McCann grinned. “With respect, Madam President, I haven’t got to that yet.” He pointed way to the south now, at Kaliningrad. “While we’re massing force off the coast of Estonia and on the border with Lithuania, we’ll mount the real operation… To secure and disrupt the nuclear-armed Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad.”

At the mention of the word “nuclear,” Bear noted President Dillon’s eyes narrow and her face become expressionless. Like any sane person, she was clearly terrified of being responsible for the unleashing of even one nuclear weapon in heavily populated Europe.

McCann’s voice was equally neutral now, as he pressed on before Dillon could interrupt him again. “We know for a fact that the launch of tactical nuclear missiles like Iskander depends on release authority from the President, Defense Minister and Chief of the General Staff through their ‘Cheget’ nuclear briefcases—pretty much identical to any black, slimline attaché case, very like your own.” He nodded to the case on the desk. “On the face of it, and in theory, all three have to agree and all three have their own suitcase,” explained McCann.

“But why are we only going after the tactical Iskanders?” Dillon asked.

“Can I stop you right there, ma’am.” McCann held his hand up, much to Bear’s relief. He had been getting worried, too, that all this talk of different missile types—tactical versus strategic—was confusing the civilians in the room, including the President.

“Modern nuclear weapons are so powerful that it is almost academic whether a missile is deemed tactical or strategic if even one is launched. The consequences for Europe, the world, would be entirely catastrophic. If you aren’t killed in the immediate blast, then fall-out will get you because, once one is launched, it is almost inevitable that the other side will respond with theirs… The consequence: MAD—Mutually Assured Destruction.”