War with Russia

“IN CONCLUSION, THE force generation process for this operation has been relatively successful and I would like to pass on my thanks to all nations for the excellent cooperation SHAPE has had from your Chiefs of Defense and Ministries of Defense. Secretary General, that concludes my briefing.”

And with that, General Sir David McKinlay closed his brief and sat back in his chair. By no means every formation and unit in the Combined Joint Statement of Requirement, or CJSOR in NATO jargon, had been provided. In particular, it was deeply regrettable that his own nation had faced such difficulties in putting together a force. Whether it was lack of Navy escorts and manpower or the Army’s dependence on reserves to fill key gaps, the UK’s defense capability was a shadow of what it once had been. Nevertheless, a number of critical deficiencies had been filled by the Americans, so he was able to brief the NAC that, in his professional military judgment, the force would be able to do the job it was being asked to take on.

Not only that, such had been the response from some nations that McKinlay had been called upon to exercise the wisdom of Solomon to avoid upsetting countries keen to offer what they could to the force being assembled to eject Russia from the Baltic states. He had even been happy to include contributions from non-NATO members, with Sweden, Finland, Australia and New Zealand figuring significantly. That said, there were other nations—the usual suspects—conspicuous for their lack of contribution and enthusiasm. That was a matter for another day, though.

“Thank you, DSACEUR,” said Secretary General Kostilek. “Are there any more questions?” He paused momentarily, and then continued, “I see there are none. SACEUR, the floor is yours.”

Admiral Max Howard got straight to the point. “Secretary General, ladies and gentlemen. I want to add my thanks and congratulations to DSACEUR’s. This has been a fine effort from the Alliance in generating the force levels we need for this operation. That’s the good news… but there’s bad news, too. It’s one thing to pull together the force, but it’s quite another to achieve victory. Sure, in line with your authority, we’ve been planning the detail of this very complex operation for the past five weeks. The Military Committee has been given a Top Secret briefing on the plan at SHAPE and your MILREPs—your Military Representatives—will have briefed you in detail. So you all know what is planned.”

He looked around the Council table at the twenty-eight ambassadors; most very capable diplomats but understandably, with very little comprehension of the complexities and mechanics of a military operation, particularly an operation on the scale of this one. He knew most of them personally and liked many of them as individuals. But he detected a certain smugness in the room; the knowledge that they were in the inner circle. They knew the plan and had the satisfaction of knowing that they were the ones who had given SACEUR authority to proceed. It was time to shake that self-satisfaction.

McKinlay knew that Admiral Howard had already cleared his line with the Secretary General and the Chairman of the Military Committee, General Knud Vahr, so he was guaranteed support from those two, as well as the American and British ambassadors, who both knew what was about to happen.

“You will not like what I am going to say,” said Howard. “But I have to. The bottom line is this. If the NAC continues to insist on retaining the right to give me the green light for each stage of what I need to do as your Supreme Commander, then I guarantee that NATO will fail in this endeavor. And if we fail to eject the Russians from the Baltic states, having assembled this impressive force, then the Alliance will have no future. And Europe will have no future. And Russia will have won. I don’t need to once again spell out the political or military consequences of that horror scenario…”

McKinlay heard a perceptible intake of breath from around the table.

The German ambassador scowled and raised his hand.

Howard ignored the interruption and continued. “If I had been sitting here thirty-five years ago, as your SACEUR, during the Cold War, I would have had the authority to deploy forces when I wanted if faced with Warsaw Pact aggression. I would not have had to turn to the NAC for the green light at each step on the way. Let me give you an example. My predecessors as SACEUR were able to order the deployment of the ACE, Allied Command Europe, Mobile Force—a multinational immediate response force—to meet any of its contingency plans once NATO’s activation warning order ACTWARN had been declared. There was no requirement to go back to the NAC. As a result, NATO was able to make decisions with real agility and effectiveness.”

McKinlay could see the German ambassador muttering to himself and scribbling furiously.