War with Russia

“Contrast that with NATO’s recent failure to deploy the Very High Readiness Joint Task Force, the successor to the ACE Mobile Force, to the Baltic states quickly enough to deter the Russians from invading. Had I been able to do that without the authority of the NAC, I believe we would not be sitting here today, with Russia occupying three NATO countries. The irony is that many of the units were ready to deploy, but I had no authority to send them.”

Now the French and German ambassadors were whispering to each other.

Kostilek banged the table with his gavel. “Please be good enough to let SACEUR finish.”

Howard continued, “The NAC’s insistence on clearing in advance any plan by the NATO Military Authorities is a product of an era that has now passed. I concede that it was politically expedient in Afghanistan, given the very different role of NATO out there. But I have to tell you… this creeping reduction in SACEUR’s authority will guarantee military failure if it continues. You may think you are the only ones to have been briefed on my top secret plan. But I also have to tell you, that anything you are briefed upon will be on the President’s desk in Moscow within hours.”

McKinlay looked around the table. Some faces were angry, others resigned, others curious as to where this was going. SACEUR had just had the bad manners to point to the ever-present elephant in the NATO room, something everyone present knew, but no one ever referred to, at least in public: the fact that the information given to the NAC had a nasty habit of leaking straight back to Moscow. Many of the ambassadors were clearly unhappy at the insinuation and some were already demanding to speak.

Admiral Howard ignored the hubbub.

“Secretary General, it is right that the NAC should set the political end-state and I am quite clear what you want me to achieve. However, I have to be able to plan and execute the military strategy to achieve that without having to clear it every step of the way with the NAC… And without fearing for operational security. I therefore request the NAC give me full authority to proceed from here on to the end of this crisis without having to clear the details of the campaign with you. We can, of course, revisit this matter when Russia has been expelled from the Baltics.”

And now the muttering around the table was reaching a crescendo.

Kostilek banged his gavel again and called for order. “My dear colleagues, I fully understand your concerns regarding this issue. I propose that we ask SACEUR and DSACEUR to step outside while we discuss it in closed, ambassador-only, session. The Chairman of the Military Committee, as the NAC’s official military adviser, will of course remain.”

And with that, Howard nodded to McKinlay and the two men left the council chamber to be met by Captain Dan Rodowicz, the tall ex-professional basketball player who had joined up after 9/11 and was now part of SACEUR’s forward liaison team in NATO HQ. “Hi, Sirs. I suggest we head upstairs to the office and we’ll fix you a coffee and something to eat.”

Two hours later, the call came through to the office requesting Howard and McKinlay to return to the chamber. As they entered, the room went quiet.

Kostilek welcomed them back. “SACEUR, thank you for your patience. We have debated this issue in detail and I am pleased to say that, after considerable discussion, we have a consensus. We ask that you submit the usual daily update to the NAC and, in particular, that you keep the NAC appraised of any issues likely to have an impact at the grand strategic level. Furthermore, the NAC has agreed that, as Secretary General of NATO, you are to brief me in detail on your plan as it proceeds. Meanwhile, you have the green light to prosecute operations as you see fit.”

1030 hours, Friday, July 7, 2017

Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ), Cheltenham, England

CHELTENHAM, THE GENTEEL, quintessentially English spa town that sits at the base of the limestone escarpment marking the western edge of the Cotswold Hills, is dominated in the first two weeks of July by the music festival; this year, according to the Daily Telegraph, a “shrewd mix of tradition and novelty, guaranteeing some very special musical experiences.”

This was utterly lost on Trevor Walker, the Prime Minister’s Director of Communications, as he was driven through the suburbs of Cheltenham to meet Prime Minister Oliver Little. Not only was Walker totally uninterested in music, but with the country now effectively at war with Russia and a new Prime Minister in Number 10 Downing Street, he was preoccupied with ensuring his new boss’s power base in the parliamentary party was secure.