War with Russia

The US president, the most powerful person in the world and Commander-in-Chief of the world’s most powerful armed forces, digested the information before responding.

“General, what do you suggest we do?” Her voice was steady, betraying no emotion.

“Madam President, apart from ensuring all our trainers are extracted to ensure no more hostages for the Russians, there is little we can do. Ukraine is not a member of NATO, so we’re not going to war with Russia over this. That means they will get away with it. But I do have two recommendations. First.” He held up the forefinger of his left hand and grasped it with his right to emphasize the point. “We must try to ensure the West is united. That means calls to our key NATO allies. I suggest you start with the French President. After all, France has consistently delivered in the Middle East and in Africa in the last couple of years. I guess you ought to call the British Prime Minister for old times’ sake, but the Brits have not delivered on the ground ever since Afghanistan and even then they needed to be bailed out by the US Marine Corps in Helmand.”

“No, General. The Brits are beginning to show a bit of their old spirit lately, despite being so late joining in with air strikes over Syria. But they remain our most important strategic partner. It’s vital that I call the Prime Minister first. And your second recommendation?”

“Ma’am, I don’t like what is developing here. There’s something about this belligerence of the Russian President… his rhetoric… We believe he might want to spark something in the Baltic states. Perhaps capitalize on the tension in Latvia and Estonia between the locals and their ethnic Russian, so-called ‘non-citizens.’ We know the Russians have been hard at work fomenting discontent for some time now, hence the wave of recent labor disputes and strikes. It’s not even impossible the Russians make a grab for the Baltics while we focus on Ukraine.”

“What is your recommendation, General?” pressed the President.

“Call a meeting of the Cabinet. You’ll also need the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs. He needs to give the requisite orders, not me. Meanwhile, we should ask the Pentagon to prepare a proposal to take appropriate measures to ramp up military readiness.”

“Military readiness… Such as?”

“Such as preparing to man the brigade’s worth of vehicles we have warehoused and spread across the Baltic states and Poland,” replied MacWhite. “They are currently mothballed and it will take at least a fortnight to get them prepped, manned and concentrated in one place should we need them. Then we need to ramp up the readiness to move of 6th Fleet, 18th Airborne Corps, Special Operations Command and US Air Force Europe.”

“Meaning?” the President interrupted, obviously unfamiliar with this military terminology.

“That these forces are currently at normal peacetime readiness. Personnel are on normal leave rotas or away on courses, equipment is being routinely dismantled and serviced. Start by reducing notice to move; lead elements reduced to forty-eight hours with the remainder at graduated readiness out to seven days. That means giving the necessary notice now so we ensure we can get people, equipment and forces to the right place in time if we need to. Also, it sends a strong signal to the Russians.”

The President nodded. “Makes sense. Agreed.”

The general continued, “And, given this could be the start of something larger and the Russians will probably play the nuclear card, we need to send a warning order to the ‘at sea’ Trident boats in the Barents Sea. But we’ve got to be circumspect about this. We mustn’t give the President any excuses to claim that we’ve provoked him.”

“Isn’t this overkill, General? Warning the Tridents. Calling back the fleet? And all on the basis of a rocket attack in eastern Ukraine?”

“Madam President, we have been watching the President very carefully ever since his 2014 invasion of Crimea and his move on eastern Ukraine. We’ve been waiting for something just like this to happen. In fact, we’re surprised it has taken him this long to make his move. Our predictions…”

Bear saw the President give her National Security Advisor a hard look and his boss take a deep breath.

He and the general had war-gamed these scenarios. They both knew what was probably going to come next; what the Russians wanted, what the Russians had in mind. But call this wrong, and his boss would lose the President’s trust and would soon be out of a job. And it would not be only his boss who’d be looking for a new job. His own career would go into free fall.

Without thinking, he gave his boss an almost imperceptible nod of support; calling this right was far more important than jobs or careers.