War with Russia

SACEUR beckoned him over. “I’ve brought David in to brief the NAC on where we are with getting the nations to stump up the necessary forces,” he explained.

“Good idea. How does it look to you, David?” Vahr looked at McKinlay with his piercing blue eyes.

“Not so good, Knud, I’m afraid, and it’s down to the usual suspects,” replied McKinlay, taking his seat beside Howard and organizing his papers.

At that moment Secretary General Radek Kostilek entered. His hair had been recently cropped to his usual crew cut and, at sixty-two, he looked fit, youthful and tanned from his recent holiday in the Maldives. He took his chair and the conference room fell silent as he looked around to ensure he had everyone’s attention before opening the meeting.

Kostilek got straight to the point. “Ladies and gentlemen,” he said gravely, “as you all know, Russian forces, responding to a so-called terrorist attack on a school in Donetsk, invaded Ukraine this morning. In New York the UN Security Council will shortly be meeting and we now need to consider our own response to this aggression. Before we do so, I call upon SACEUR to brief the Council on the military situation.”

Admiral Max Howard leaned forward in his seat, his aquiline face, gold-braided uniform and extensive medal ribbons giving him a presence that immediately commanded attention.

“Secretary General, ladies and gentlemen, NATO faces an exceptionally dangerous situation. We have already seen Russia attacking and shooting down US aircraft engaged in lawful training activities in Ukrainian airspace and claiming it a provocation. Our assessment is that the attack on the school in Donetsk was Russian-executed to provide the pretext for breaking the ceasefire. In the early hours of this morning, Russian regular forces attacked Ukraine, a valued NATO partner. The Russians started by launching an airborne operation by 98th Guards Airborne Division to secure key communications nodes along their axis of advance in southern Ukraine toward Crimea. They followed that up with an attack on land by 20 Guards Tank Army, supported by air and naval forces in the Sea of Azov. I have to tell you that the Russians appear to have secured all their initial objectives. The key town of Mariupol has been captured and the land route from Russia to Crimea opened up. At this stage it is too early to say whether Russia will advance further into Ukraine, but we cannot rule it out, as the Ukrainian army has effectively capitulated.”

Howard looked around the NAC table in case of any questions.

“What is your recommendation now, SACEUR?” asked Kostilek.

“Secretary General,” continued Howard, “there is little NATO can do militarily to stop Russian aggression in Ukraine. The imperative now is for the Alliance to demonstrate its resolve and readiness to defend itself. Above all, we must ensure there is no spillover of the crisis. I recommend that NATO’s immediate reserves are mobilized to deter any aggression against any Alliance member. In practical terms, this means reducing notice to move times for the Very High Readiness Joint Task Force and the NATO Response Force. It would also be prudent to deploy forces to the Baltic states to pre-empt any Russian surprise attack there. But none of this is possible unless member nations provide the necessary troops and equipment.”

Looking around the table, McKinlay could see a number of the ambassadors nod in agreement: Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Poland, which only made sense as they were probably next on the Russian wish list. Others, notably Germany and Italy, sat with their faces as if frozen, giving nothing away. Not good news. He looked next at Dame Flora Montrose, the elegant, erudite, Oxford blue-stocking with the flawless complexion, who was the UK’s ambassador to NATO. Her body language was important. If she showed any sign of sitting on the fence at this moment of crisis, his own position, even though he was a NATO rather than a UK officer, would become very much more difficult. With some relief, he spotted the most imperceptible of nods from his fellow Scot in support of the Eastern Europeans. He would not have to take issue with Whitehall. Yet.

Howard looked at Kostilek. “Secretary General. I suggest that DSACEUR, the man responsible for ensuring NATO has the means to implement strategy, tells the NAC where we stand in generating such forces.”

Kostilek turned to McKinlay. “Very well, DSACEUR. The floor is yours.”

McKinlay looked around the table at the assembled ambassadors. This might be a moment of high drama for NATO, but the Scottish Royal Marine remained practical, down to earth and focused.