War with Russia

“Secretary General, ladies and gentlemen, I will be brief. First, let me point out that NATO has a small maritime presence in the Baltic already. The Standing NATO Mine Countermeasures Group, or SNMCMG, is currently exercising in the Baltic with ships from Germany, Poland, Norway, UK and Belgium. However, while an important demonstration of NATO’s presence in the Baltic, it is not a deterrent force as such, as it only has very limited offensive capability. As for the would-be ‘Very High Readiness Joint Task Force,’ the VJTF if you will forgive another NATO acronym, the reality is that, despite the best of intentions, it is a long way from being ready for anything. It is an ad hoc formation of units from fourteen different nations and it has never trained together properly in the field, so—and I’m going to put this bluntly so there are no misunderstandings—it is simply not ready for combat. Not only that, while the lead element of the Task Force is at high readiness to move, the reality is that we’d be doing well to get it ready in place within twenty-eight days.”

McKinlay looked around the room. None of the ambassadors looked surprised.

He continued, “And then there are the force levels. Of the nations who have offered troops to the Very High Readiness Task Force, only the designated Danish, French and UK units are ready for deployment within three days. I have spoken to the Chiefs of Defense of the other contributing nations, but none can give me any assurances that their forces will be ready in less than two weeks. Or at all…”

Now a few of the ambassadors began to look unhappy at the implied criticism. Kostilek intervened. “Thank you, DSACEUR, for the reminder about the NATO minesweeper group. But you do not bring any comfort with your comments about the problems with the High Readiness Task Force. What about the NATO Response Force, the NRF?”

“I’m afraid the situation doesn’t get any better,” replied McKinlay. “The aspiration to deliver forty thousand troops as part of the NRF is just that. An aspiration and one which only exists on paper. Things are better for the maritime and air components, but we have to be realistic about the land component. Even if the Very High Readiness Joint Task Force of five thousand could be made available in time, it would not amount to a credible and capable deterrent to the Russians. But…” and he resisted the temptation to laugh sardonically, “we do have a headquarters which could command the force if, that is, it had a force to command. However, even that depends on the framework nation—the country responsible for providing the bulk of the manpower and equipment to ensure that the headquarters can operate—being prepared to see notice to move reduced.”

“So?” questioned Kostilek. “Why is there a problem with at least doing that?”

McKinlay had been long enough in NATO to know that he should avoid any direct criticism of a NATO member state. He said nothing.

At this point, the German ambassador, a large man, with the grim demeanor of an Osnabrück landlord chucking out drunken British soldiers at closing time, scowled and raised his hand. “Secretary General, I must protest at this implied criticism of Germany. Yes, Germany is currently framework nation, but we insist on the correct procedures before we can reduce the notice to move of the VJTF. And we have yet to be convinced that Russia poses a sufficient threat to NATO to justify such a reduction. In fact, it may just ratchet up the tension. Furthermore, we are not convinced that the necessary consensus is achievable. To reduce NATO forces notice to move requires a unanimous vote in the NAC.” As he said this, he looked hard at the two ambassadors to his immediate right, the Greek and Hungarian ambassadors.

McKinlay could see from the body language that both were clearly unhappy at this talk of deterring Russia. Of course, both nations were in thrall to the Kremlin; Greece thanks to the bailout of Russian cash, and Hungary as a result of the sizable nuclear deal agreed a couple of years earlier with the President. Neither would want to jeopardize those deals by voting for anything that might antagonize Russia and the President.

McKinlay could see that Kostilek knew just where this was going and sensed him trying to control his irritation. Nevertheless, like the consummate politician that he was, he stepped back to ensure that the ambassadors had their say. He looked first at the US ambassador. As de facto leader of the Alliance, the US usually spoke first on matters of importance. He declared, “The United States has the floor.”