War with Russia

“And the answer to my second question? What about the brigade the Americans have stationed across Eastern Europe on a rotational basis? I recall being briefed that this year we can expect a second brigade’s worth of vehicles? And, of course, Prime Minister Spencer of the UK surprised us a couple of years ago by committing Britain to two percent of GDP spent on defense. Has that made a difference?”

“With respect, Vladimir Vladimirovich, while you are correct on both counts, the FSB’s assessment is that these are both little more than political posturing. At present. A timely headline in their newspapers and no more. While the Americans have a brigade spread from Estonia to Bulgaria, that hardly counts as a military capability. Only when the brigade is assembled together, and properly trained with the nations it is to operate alongside, can it possibly become effective. And that has not happened. Nor can it happen in less than a week and we will have achieved our objectives well within that timeframe. As for the second brigade’s worth of vehicles kept in storage, that is hardly relevant. Only when the vehicles are fully crewed and it, too, is concentrated will it be an effective force. So while NATO can do little at present, there remains the danger of a continued build-up of forces by the West, which could well threaten us in time.”

“And the British?”

“Good fighters and still, for their size, the most capable armed forces in Europe, even if some of their generals are keener to tell their politicians what they want to hear than command as soldiers. Nevertheless, man for man, they are still a match for anyone in the world.”

General Gareyev nodded his agreement.

Komarov saw the President’s momentary flash of irritation at the acknowledgment of the fighting qualities of the British, quickly subside at the criticism of British generalship.

Merkulov continued. “Extra spending? It is all show. More headlines. The British government is playing political smoke and mirrors with its defense budget by now including not only the costs of the intelligence agencies, but also civil service pensions, to get them over the two percent of GDP line. The military spending cuts of the past decade will take years to put right and would cost much, much more than they plan to spend. After all, Vladimir Vladimirovich, it is costing us a forty-per-cent annual increase in defense spending just to start putting right the neglect of those traitors Gorbachev and Yeltsin.”

“What are their vulnerabilities, Lavrentiy Pavlovich?” persisted the President.

“The list is long and responsibility for much of it lies with Defense Secretary Everage. He made millions in the processed-meat business. But knowing how to make a margin on sausages does not necessarily give you any understanding of geostrategy or war. How could it? That requires people with a sense of history and experience of war.” Merkulov allowed himself the hint of a smile.

The President nodded for him to continue, clearly enjoying the insult.

“What is more, he is at loggerheads with many of his senior military, because he succeeded magnificently in his cost-cutting task. He slashed their regular army manpower by nearly twenty percent and said he would replace them with reserves. His generals told him they could never be adequately recruited or trained and he ignored them. The generals turned out to be right. Only a man focused on saving money at almost any cost, and with no understanding of the strategic consequences, would have taken such a risky gamble.” Merkulov paused, unsure what level of detail the President wanted him to go into.

But Komarov knew the President was loving this.

“Go on.”

“Their Prime Minister needed to save money quickly to reduce the deficit and he appointed this businessman to do it. He did as he was asked and certainly, their Prime Minister thinks he was a success. But now they are about to receive their dividend: bad decisions, taken in haste, for which they will pay the blood price.”

“And the money price,” the President interjected.

“That is the true genius of your plan, Vladimir Vladimirovich. NATO and the West will think this is all about protecting Russian speakers, but it is also about the balance of power in Europe. When NATO fails to react to our seizure of the Baltic states it will have failed, been defeated, and probably collapse. At that moment it will cease to pose a threat to Russia. Without NATO, Europe will be forced to beg us not to go any further. And apart from eastern Poland, which has historically been part of Russia, we probably won’t. We’d all be happy to visit Paris as a tourist. But there will be a price to pay for our forbearance. We will demand that these criminal sanctions are lifted immediately, and with our victorious armies on their borders and our nuclear missiles pointed at them, will they refuse? I think not.