War with Russia

TOM MORLAND, ALONG with the Latvian Intelligence Service Liaison Officer, Marina Krauja, was in their temporary office in the Training Wing at Ādaži as Corporal Steve Bradley, the six-foot-four-inch Kiwi, established comms with PJHQ over the INMARSAT secure VTC; a delicate operation conducted with an incongruously soft touch by such a giant of a man.

This time, as the Conference Room in PJHQ came into view, with the Joint Services eagle, crossed swords and anchor badge in the background, it seemed to reflect the overnight change in the world order because the picture on the monitor was very much sharper. Morland saw that the PJHQ Baltic team leader, Lieutenant Colonel Nicholas Graham, a balding, heavily bespectacled Gunner whom Morland had briefly met on his pre-deployment briefing, sat beside Major Jerry Dingley. Despite the small screen, he could also make out Nicky Allenby off to the side.

Graham led the session. Initially he was jovial. “Morning, Tom. So much for your cushy team task in lovely Latvia. You’ve certainly stirred things up since you’ve been there!”

Then he became brisk and to the point. “Thanks for your initial report on yesterday’s events; very helpful. We’ve distributed it widely around PJHQ and in Whitehall. There’s a lot on the wires about what happened yesterday and we’re picking up some worrying developments on the Russian side of the border. But first, fill me in on some of the detail behind your sitrep and give me a feel for the atmospherics. And the question I want to get to the bottom of is the extent to which this whole thing was fomented by agents provocateurs, Russian or otherwise.”

Morland quickly summarized what he and the team had witnessed yesterday, then focused on the Baltics team leader’s question.

“Sir, there’s no question that what happened yesterday was orchestrated. The way the demo boiled over was certainly the result of a carefully planned and professional operation. I’m as certain as I can be that those marshaling the demo are part of some sort of self-protection militia set up by the ethnic Russians. I’m also pretty sure that, thanks to Marina and the Latvian Intelligence Service, we know the individual who is behind it.”

“Go on,” said Graham.

“I’m talking about the guy Marina pointed out to me—he’s the man the Latvians have been watching—the fellow in the photo we sent through last night on the data link; black fleece, dark hair. A tough-looking bastard. I suspect he’s Special Forces, possibly FSB. I’m as certain as I can be that I watched him give the order on his mobile for the snipers to take out the Russian girls. And I’m also pretty certain that what I heard was a VSS sniper rifle, followed by a burst of AK47 as cover or deception. I fired a VSS on the range only last week when the Latvians gave us a demo of Russian weapons.”

“Roger that, Tom. We’ve got the J2 intel analysts working on the image now. We’ve also got our people crawling through the TV footage of the shooting as that might help confirm your analysis. That was good work.”

“I assume GCHQ are trying to track down his mobile number. I’ll bet there’s a link with the numbers we gave you earlier. He made the call around ten minutes after I took his picture and the time is recorded on the photo.” Morland looked at Allenby on the screen inquiringly.

“Don’t worry, Tom. We’re on the case.”

“We’ll check that, too. I’ll give you some direction in a second. Now, we’ve got some stuff on the strategic picture which you need to hear.” Graham turned to Dingley. “Over to you, Jerry.”

Dingley spoke into the microphone. “Tom, the Russians have pretty much closed the Ukrainians down in the southeast and it is as good as game over down there. However, we’ve had reports that they’ve called another of their snap exercises, but this time they’re concentrating on the Western Military District and the Baltic Fleet. It also looks like the Northern Fleet, based in Severomorsk, just north of Murmansk and with access to the Barents Sea, has been ordered to sea with a carrier battle group, together with a number of strategic nuclear submarines.”

He paused to allow Morland to note the key points.

“On land, 6th Army, headquartered in St. Petersburg, has deployed all its formations out of barracks into concentration areas on the Estonian and Latvian borders, while we’re seeing indications that 1st Guards Tank Army from Moscow Military District is deploying by rail and road to reinforce 6th Army. That’s important, because it gives 6th Army the ability to sustain combat operations for some time. Most worrying is the move of 2nd and 16th Spetsnaz Brigades to Pskov, base of 76th Guards Assault Landing Division. They’re in the middle of a deployment exercise at the moment. Oh, and you’ll be well aware that Pskov is only fifty minutes’ flying time to Riga.”