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War with Russia

“The G7 will become the G8 once again and Russia will again be a leading player. Will the International Monetary Fund dare not grant us soft loans? I doubt it. And here’s an amusing thought one of my staffers came up with. As we will once again own the Baltics and all three are members of the European Union, surely that will make us members of the EU? With three votes even…”

There were loud guffaws of laughter from the others at the joke but, behind his wintry smile, Komarov could see that Merkulov was deadly serious.

He waited for the conversation to die down before continuing. “Because Russia has always been part of Europe and as EU members, we would be entitled to receive massive EU Structural and Investment Funds. Refuse and they will risk our missiles. And there will be no NATO to resist us.”

The President gave a tight smile. “Boris Mikhailovich, our much-esteemed but always very concerned Finance Minister, will be delighted to learn this. But then again,” he shrugged, “I feel sure he will find something to worry about.”

“That is why businessmen and accountants should not be allowed anywhere near the business of war,” Merkulov replied.

“Exactly.” The President nodded. “Now, tell me more about the problems the British face.”

Komarov knew how the President enjoyed being told in front of his generals how short-sighted and foolish his enemies were. Not only did it reassure the President that his plans would work, but it also let the generals know how lucky they were to have him as their commander-in-chief. Two birds knocked from the sky with one stone, as the British would say.

“As for their once-formidable navy, they have yet to replace the escort ships they scrapped, while the aircraft carriers they built have no aircraft to fly off them. Nor, despite the decision to procure them in 2015, will they have any anti-submarine, maritime patrol aircraft for at least another two years. Quite unbelievable for an island nation. You would think they would understand the sea, as we understand the land. But this British government? Apparently not.

“And as for their once-famous army? Our assessment is that they are now so weak that the deployment of a brigade, let alone a division, would be a major challenge. Indeed, when they deployed a small armored battlegroup to Poland to take part in a flagship NATO exercise last November, our agents in the UK were picking up unconfirmed rumors that they were talking about bringing tanks over from their training fleet in Canada, because the serviceability and spares situation in their UK tank fleet was so dire.”

“What happened?” the President demanded.

“They ended up cannibalizing what tanks they had in Britain and Germany, just to get half a tank battalion operational. It was all about saving face.”

“And did they succeed in saving face?”

“No.” Merkulov allowed himself to smile again. “Although the other nations involved were too polite to comment. We have it on very good authority that the British military were deeply embarrassed, but their politicians did not want to notice.”

“We are indeed fortunate that this Defense Minister inflicted such lasting damage. What about NATO’s ability to reinforce Latvia?” asked the President.

“All the indications are that NATO’s celebrated Very High Readiness Joint Task Force is also a hollow force. For a start, it is only planned at being a brigade-sized force of five thousand men. It would struggle to deploy any heavy equipment in any meaningful timeframe. It has no permanent command structure and is dependent on bringing together units who have never worked together from across the Alliance, all the way from Albania to Norway. As for the rest of the NATO Response Force? The same applies. Only worse. And anyway, its deployment depends on all twenty-eight members agreeing the decision in the North Atlantic Council. Our friends in some of the capitals assure us that there is unlikely to ever be any such agreement. And, even if there were, by the time a decision is made it is likely to be too late,” Merkulov concluded.

“So we have an open goal in the Baltic states?” asked the President, looking around the table.

All present nodded assent.

“Comrades, as the universal poet and playwright William Shakespeare said, ‘There is a tide in the affairs of men which taken at the flood leads on to greatness.’ This is our tide and we must take it. History will not be kind to us if we fail to seize the moment to preempt any further encirclement and aggression from NATO. We must take this opportunity to destroy the Alliance while it is still weak.”

The President paused for effect and then said very quietly, but with menace, “Let the attack on the Baltic states begin.”