When China Rules the World

This makes the second scenario – India being obliged to live with and adapt to China ’s power and presence in South Asia – rather more probable. It also increases the likelihood that China will emerge over time not only as the dominant power in East Asia but in South Asia as well. There is, however, an important rider to this, as the rules of the game appear to be chang-ing in a significant way. During the second term of the Clinton administration, the United States established a strategic partnership with India which was extended in 2006 by the Bush administration to include nuclear cooperation, an agreement which was eventually approved by the Indian parliament in 2008. [1129] The agreement violated previous American policy by accepting India ’s status as a nuclear power, even though it was not a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty. This was a pointed reminder that US policy on nuclear proliferation is a matter of interest and convenience rather than principle, as the contrasting cases of Iran and Israel in the Middle East also illustrate. The reason for the American volte-face was geopolitical, the desire to promote India as a global power and establish a new US- India axis in South Asia as a counter to the rise of China. [1130] During the Cold War relations between India and the US were distant and distrustful, and even after 1989 they improved little, with the US pursuing an even-handed approach to India and Pakistan and imposing sanctions on India after its nuclear tests in 1998. It is testimony to the growing American concern about China that the US was persuaded to engage in such a U-turn. For its part, India ’s position had previously been characterized by its relative isolation: apart from its long-standing alliance with the former Soviet Union, its determinedly non-aligned status had led it to resist forming strategic partnerships with the major powers or even second-tier ones. [1131] But there is unease amongst sections of the Indian establishment, especially the military, about China ’s growing power. [1132] Depending on how the US- India partnership evolves, it could dramatically change the balance of power between China and India in South Asia, persuading China to act more cautiously while at the same time emboldening India. [1133] The US-India partnership raises many questions and introduces numerous uncertainties. If it proves effective and durable, then it could act as a significant regional and global counter to China. How China will respond remains to be seen: the most obvious move might be a closer relationship with Pakistan, but it is not inconceivable that China might decide to seek a strategic rapprochement with India as a means of fending off the United States and denying it a major presence in South Asia.

Map 13. Territory Disputed by China and India

Figure 39. Comparative economic performance of China and India.

EUROPE

China ’s relationship with Europe is significantly different from that with the United States. While the US- China relationship has been a more or less continuous source of domestic debate and controversy, the Europe-China relationship has, until recently, attracted relatively little attention. Relations between Europe and China have hitherto been relatively straightforward and conflict-free. Historically this is a little ironic. After all, it was the European powers, starting with Britain and the Opium Wars, which colonized China, with the United States very much a latecomer to the process. The ‘century of humiliation’ was about Europe, together with Japan, with the United States playing no more than a bit part. The present relationship between Europe and China has been low profile largely because Europe, apart from its economic interests, is no longer a major power in East Asia, a position it relinquished to the United States in the aftermath of the Second World War. That Europe is largely invisible in such an important region of the world bears testimony to its post-1945 global decline and its retreat into an increasingly regional role, a process which continues apace and is likely to accelerate with the rise of China and India. [1134] With the exception of the euro, discussion of Europe ’s wider global role is largely confined to what is known as ‘normative power’, namely the promotion of standards that are negotiated and legitimized within international institutions. [1135] Nonetheless, with an economy rivalling that of the United States in size, together with the fact that it forms the other half of the Western alliance, Europe’s attitude towards China is clearly of some importance.