Искусство замечать. Секреты наблюдательности истинных лидеров

3. U. S. Senate, Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, “Wall Street and the Financial Crisis: Anatomy of a Financial Collapse,” April 13, 2011, http://www.hsgac.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Financial Crisis/FinancialCrisisReport.pdf?attempt=2.

4. Jesse Eisenger, “Misdirection in Goldman Sachs’s Housing Short,” New York Times DealBook, June 15, 2011, http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/06/15/misdirection-in-goldman-sachss-housing-short/.

5. J. D. Trout, “An Index of Honesty,” 2012. Loyola University, workingpaper.

6. Todd Rogers and Michael I. Norton, “The Artful Dodger: Answering the Wrong Question the Right Way,” Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied 17, no. 2 (2011): 139–147.

7. Rogers and Norton, “The Artful Dodger.”

8. Todd Rogers, Francesca Gino, Michael I. Norton, Richard Zeckhauser, and Maurice Schweitzer, “Artful Dodging and Negotiation,”2013. Harvard University, working paper.

9. Garold Stasser, “Computer Simulation as a Research Tool: The DISCUSS Model of Group Decision Making,” Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 24, no. 5 (1988): 393–422; Garold Stasser and Dennis D. Stewart, “Discovery of Hidden Profiles by Decisionmaking Groups: Solving a Problem versus Making a Judgment,” Journal of Personality & Social Psychology 63, no. 3 (1992): 426–434; Garold Stasser and William Titus, “Pooling of Unshared Information in Group Decision Making: Biased Information Sampling During Discussion,” Journal of Personality & Social Psychology 48, no. 6 (1985): 1467–1478; Deborah H. Gruenfeld, Elizabeth A. Mannix, Katherine Y. Williams, and Margaret A. Neale, “Group Composition and Decision Making: How Member Familiarity and Information Distribution Affect Process and Performance,” Organizational Behavior & Human Decision Processes 67, no. 1 (1996): 1–15.

10. Stasser and Titus, “Pooling of Unshared Information in Group Decision Making.

Глава 6. На скользкой дорожке: когда мы упускаем очевидное

1. Arthur Levitt, Take On the Street: What Wall Street and Corporate America Don’t Want You to Know. What You Can Do to Fight Back (New York: Random House, 2002).

2. Daniel J. Simons, “Current Approaches to Change Blindness,” Visual Cognition 7, nos. 1–3 (2000): 1–15.

3. Daniel J. Simons, Christopher F. Chabris, Tatiana T. Schnur, and Daniel T. Levin, “Evidence for Preserved Representations in Change Blindness,” Consciousness and Cognition 11 (2002): 78–97.

4. Для того чтобы предложенные на утверждение оценки соответствовали нашей задаче, утверждающим сообщили, что они будут выполнять свою задачу в два этапа, на одном из которых им предложат реальные оценки участников другого исследования. Благодаря этому мы могли манипулировать оценками, предоставленными утверждающим на первом этапе, не подводя никого из участников эксперимента.

5. Scott McGregor, “Earnings Management and Manipulation,” n. d., http://webpage.pace.edu/pviswanath/notes/corpfin/earningsmanip.html.

6. Catherine M. Schrand and Sarah L. C. Zechman, “Executive Overconfidence and the Slippery Slope to Financial Misreporting,”Journal of Accounting & Economics 53 (2012): 311–329.

7. Эта задача была взята из работы Марка Алперта (Marc Alpert) и Говарда Раффия (Howard Raffia) и адаптирована, “A Progress Report on the Training of Probability Assessors, in Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, ed. Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, and Amos Tversky (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1982).

8. Max H. Bazerman and Don A. Moore, Judgment in Managerial Decision Making, 8th ed. (New York: Wiley, 2013); Don A. Moore and Paul J. Healy, “The Trouble with Overconfidence,” Psychological Review 115, no. 2 (2008): 502–517. В этих источниках также рассматриваются условия, при которых можно предсказать, как возникнет недостаточная уверенность в себе.

9. See Bazerman and Moore, Judgment in Managerial Decision Making, for an overview of this literature.

10. Ulrike Malmendier and Geoffrey Tate, “CEO Overconfidence and Corporate Investment,” Journal of Finance 60, no. 6 (2005): 2661–2700.

11. “Former President and Former Vice-President of Kurzweil Applied Intelligence Sentenced to Prison for Roles in Securities Fraud Scheme,” PRNewswire, December 12, 1996, http://www.mackenty.com/stever/kan/sentenced.html.

12. Barry M. Staw, “Knee-deep in the Big Muddy: A Study of Escalating Commitment to a Chosen Course of Action,” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 16, no. 1 (1976): 27–44; Bazerman and Moore, Judgment in Managerial Decision Making.

13. “2011 UBS Rogue Trader Scandal,” Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011 UBS rogue trader scandal.

14. Mark Scott, “UBS Fined $47.5 Million in Rogue Trading Scandal,”New York Times DealBook, November 26, 2012, http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/11/26/ubs-fined-47–5-million-in-rogue-tradingscandal/.