Как избежать климатических катастроф? План Б 4.0: спасение цивилизации

99 Gordon McCranahan, Deborah Balk, and Bridget Anderson, “The Rising Tide: Assessing the Risks of Climate Change and Human Settlements in Low Elevation Coastal Zones”, Environment and Urbanization , vol. 18, No. 1 (April 2007), pp. 17–37; International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED), “Climate Change: Study Maps Those at Greatest Risk from Cyclones and Rising Seas”, press release (London: 28 March 2007).

К ГЛАВЕ 3

1 J. Hansen, NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, “Global Temperature Anomalies in 0.1 C” – см.: data.giess.nasa.gov/gistemp/ tabledata/GLB.Ts.txt, updated June 2009; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge, U. K.: Cambridge University Press, 2007), pp. 13, 15.

2 IPCC, op. cit. note 1, pp. 5–7; U. N. Environment Programme (UNEP), Global Outlook for Ice and Snow (Nairobi: 2007), p. 103; W. T. Pfeffer, J. T. Harper, and S. O’Neel, “Kinematic Constraints on Glacier Contribution to 21st-Century Sea-Level Rise”, Science , vol. 321 (5 September 2008), pp. 1340–1343; “Sea Levels Will Rise 1.5 Meters by 2100”, NewScientist.com 16 April 2008; Stefan Rahmstorf, “A Semi-Empirical Approach to Projecting Sea-Level Rise”, Science , vol. 315 (19 January 2007), pp. 368–370.

3 IPCC, Climate Change 2007: Impact, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge, U. K.: Cambridge University Press, 2007), pp. 241–245.

4 International Energy Agency (IEA), Oil Market Report (Paris: August 2001) – эта публикация содержит данные о нефти, продуктах из сжиженного природного газа и прибылях от переработки; данные за прошлые годы взяты из публикации: U. S. Department of Defense, Twentieth Century Petroleum Statistics (Washington, DC: 1945), эти данные воспроизведены в статье: Christopher Flavin and Seth Dunn, «Reinventing the Energy System”, опубликованной в книге: Lester R. Brown, Christopher Flavin, and Hilary French, State of the World 1999 (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 1999), p. 25; данные о потреблении угля взяты из статьи: Seth Dunn, “Coal Use Continues Rebound”, опубликованной в книге: Lester R. Brown et al., Vital Signs 1998 (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 1998), pp. 52–53.

5 IEA, Oil Market Report (Paris: June 2009); послание, отправленное Колином Дж. Кэмпбеллом Джигнашу Рана по электронной почте, Earth Policy Institute, 18 June 2009.

6 IEA, World Energy Outlook 2008 (Paris: 2008), p. 507.

7 Hansen, op. cit. note 1.

8 IPCC, op. cit. note 1, pp. 27, 135, 141, 542.

9 Данные о концентрациях, наблюдавшихся в 2008 г., взяты из работы: Pieter Tans, “Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide – Mauna Loa”, NOAA/ESRL – см.: www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends, просмотрено автором 7 апреля 2009 г.; R. A. Houghton, “Carbon Flux to the Atmosphere from Land-Use Changes: 1850–2005” – в книге: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, TRENDS: A Compendium of Data on Global Change (Oak Ridge, TN; Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 2008); Josep G. Canadell et al., “Contributions to Accelerating Atmospheric CO2 Growth from Economic Activity, Carbon Intensity, and Efficiency of Natural Sinks”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences , vol. 104, No. 47 (20 November, 2007), pp. 18, 866–870.

10 Sarah Simpson, “The Arctic Thaw Could Make Global Warming Worse”, Scientific American: Earth 3.0 , June 2009; Global Carbon Project, “Supersize Deposits of Frozen Carbon Threat to Climate Change”, press release (Canberra, Australia: 1 July 2009).

11 Veerabhadran Ramanathan et al., Atmospheric Brown Clouds: Regional Assessment Report with Focus on Asia (Nairobi: UNEP, 2008), pp. 2, 10.