Шум. Несовершенство человеческих суждений

283 пытаться, терпеть неудачи, анализировать…: Superforecasting, 273.

284 сложный статистический метод…: Ville A. Satopää, Marat Salikhov, Philip E. Tetlock, and Barb Mellers, “Bias, Information, Noise: The BIN Model of Forecasting”, February 19, 2020, 23, https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3540864.

285 когда применяемые меры…: Satopää et al., “Bias, Information, Noise”, 23.

286 Командная работа, в отличие от обучающего метода…: Satopää et al., 22.

287 «Суперпредсказатели, вероятно, обязаны…»: Satopää et al., 24.

288 будут работать автономно и в то же время смогут дополнять друг друга…: Clintin P. Davis-Stober, David V. Budescu, Stephen B. Broomell, and Jason Dana. “The composition of optimally wise crowds”. Decision Analysis 12, no. 3 (2015): 130–143.

Глава 22

289 при определении дистрофии связочного аппарата…: Laura Horton et al., “Development and Assessment of Inter- and Intra-Rater Reliability of a Novel Ultrasound Tool for Scoring Tendon and Sheath Disease: A Pilot Study”, Ultrasound 24, no. 3 (2016): 134, www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5105362.

290 врач оценит образец ткани…: Laura C. Collins et al., “Diagnostic Agreement in the Evaluation of Image-guided Breast Core Needle Biopsies”, American Journal of Surgical Pathology 28 (2004): 126, https://journals.lww.com/ajsp/Abstract/2004/01000/Diagnostic_Agreement_in_the_Evaluation_of.15.aspx.

291 Если подобный тест не сделать…: Julie L. Fierro et al., “Variability in the Diagnosis and Treatment of Group A Streptococcal Pharyngitis by Primary Care Pediatricians”, Infection Control and Hospital Epidemiology 35, no. S3 (2014): S79, www.jstor.org/stable/ 10.1086/677820.

292 Вам наверняка диагностируют диабет…: Diabetes Tests, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, https://www.cdc.gov/diabetes/basics/getting-tested.html (last accessed January 15, 2020).

293 обычно советуют получить второе мнение…: Joseph D. Kronz et al., “Mandatory Second Opinion Surgical Pathology at a Large Referral Hospital”, Cancer 86 (1999): 2426, https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/(SICI)1097–0142(19991201) 86:11%3C2426:: AID-CNCR34%3E3.0.CO;2–3.

294 проект «Дартмутский атлас»…: Основную информацию можно найти в Интернете; имеется также обширный материал – Dartmouth Medical School, The Quality of Medical Care in the United States: A Report on the Medicare Program; the Dartmouth Atlas of Health Care 1999 (American Hospital Publishers, 1999).

295 Подобные недочеты отмечены…: Например, см. OECD, Geographic Variations in Health Care: What Do We Know and What Can Be Done to Improve Health System Performance? (Paris: OECD Publishing, 2014), 137–169; Michael P. Hurley et al., “Geographic Variation in Surgical Outcomes and Cost Between the United States and Japan”, American Journal of Managed Care 22 (2016): 600, www.ajmc.com/journals/issue/2016/2016-vol22-n9/geographic-variation-in-surgical-outcomes-and-cost-between-the-united-states-and-japan; и John Appleby, Veena Raleigh, Francesca Frosini, Gwyn Bevan, Haiyan Gao, and Tom Lyscom, Variations in Health Care: The Good, the Bad and the Inexplicable (London: The King’s Fund, 2011), www.kingsfund.org.uk/sites/default/files /Variations-in-health-care-good-bad-inexplicable-report-The-Kings-Fund-April‑2011.pdf.

296 как описывают картину пневмонии разные рентгенологи…: David C. Chan Jr. et al., “Selection with Variation in Diagnostic Skill: Evidence from Radiologists”, National Bureau of Economic Research, NBER Working Paper No. 26467, November 2019, www.nber.org/papers/w26467.