Kompromat

‘Oh dear!’ There was a pause and then President Liu wiped the tears of laughter from his eyes. He was as ready to enjoy a joke as the next man. The trouble was, being the leader of a nation of almost one and a half billion people was a pretty serious business. Good jokes didn’t come along very often.

‘You’re not telling me that the president of the Russian Federation shot the possibly next president of the United States in the backside with an anaesthetizing dart!’

Zhang was miffed. ‘Yes, Mr President. That is indeed what we believe.’

‘But why would he do that?’

‘That is precisely what we are trying to find out.’

By then, President Liu had regained his composure. ‘Please keep us posted, Comrade Zhang.’

And with that he brought the meeting to a close.

Later that day, back in his office at the ministry of state security near the Old Summer Palace in Beijing, Zhang Fu-Sheng summoned his senior staff.

He addressed them in sombre tones. He knew quite well from President Liu’s not so subtle warning that his job was on the line.

‘We need to know several things,’ he began, ‘and we need to know them now.’

He ticked off the key intelligence requirements, as he saw them, one by one. ‘We know from our sources in Moscow and elsewhere that President Popov is determined to achieve, or at least hasten, the break-up of the European Union. We know that he has been following closely the progress of the Referendum campaign in Britain, which still has a few weeks to run, and is determined that the UK should vote to Leave, not to Remain. I can assure you, comrades, that such an eventuality is not, repeat not, in China’s interests.

‘So what do we do? I am going to invite Comrade Deng Biao-Su, head of our intelligence and analysis bureau, to give us the benefit of his thinking.’

‘Thank you, Comrade Zhang.’ Deng Biao-Su stood up. ‘To take the first point: what is Popov aiming at? In a nutshell, we believe, as Comrade Zhang suggests, that Popov sees the current Referendum campaign in Britain as an unparalleled – and indeed unexpected – opportunity to achieve an almost seismic change in the world’s geopolitical arrangements. Indeed, one could argue that not since Genghis Khan led his hordes from Asia into Central Europe in the twelfth century has such an opportunity presented itself. Our sources in the Kremlin have cited numerous instances of President Popov talking about the “new domino theory”, whereby a vote for Brexit in Britain sets off a chain reaction. One event encourages, indeed precipitates, the next.

‘A Brexit vote in Britain will be a devastating blow to the European Union, since Britain is such a major player there, and – incidentally – the second largest contributor to the EU budget after Germany. It will also help to ensure Ronald Craig’s victory in the forthcoming American presidential election. And both events, taken together, will kick-start a great wave of popularism in Europe – first in France, then, in Italy, then the Netherlands and – who knows – maybe in Germany itself, that bed-rock of the European Union where, as I understand it, the strength of the parties opposed to Chancellor Helga Brun is growing day by day. That wave of popularism is based on the idea that the people themselves will and must “take back control”. We will see a resurgence of the “Europe of the nations”, not the United Europe that the founding fathers like Monnet and Schuman aimed at.’

‘And how, specifically, is President Popov seeking to achieve the result he hopes for?’ Zhang asked. ‘In the first instance, for example, how will he, or can he, help the Leave side to win in the current Referendum campaign? My information is that the Leave side is at the moment far behind in the opinion polls. The UK prime minister, Jeremy Hartley, is deploying all the resources at the government’s command to try to ensure that the Remain side wins. How can Popov tip the balance in the other direction?’

Deng thought long and hard before answering that question.

‘We believe that Popov has an agent at the highest level in British government circles. It could be none other than the charismatic Edward Barnard, former Secretary of State for the Environment. Precisely when any such recruitment took place we don’t know for sure. We suspect it would have occurred very recently, when Barnard was in St Petersburg for the World Tiger Summit. Indeed, I believe Mr Barnard, and our own beloved leader, President Liu Wang-Ji, exchanged some brief words on that occasion.

‘We also don’t know for sure precisely what instructions and support Barnard would have received but we can be absolutely sure that he will not be playing the game with an empty hand. I need not stress that from China’s point of view the collapse of the European Union, kick-started by Britain leaving the EU, will be very damaging indeed. It will certainly dramatically strengthen Russia’s influence in the world. Huge swathes of Central Asia and Eastern Europe could come under Russian domination.’